VoteHub Calls Alaska for Mary Peltola

How the election desk reached its projection, and what Alaska still has to count

Nov 14, 2026

I’ve been keeping an eye on Alaska

Mary Peltola’s comeback in Alaska is one for the history books.

Alaska hasn’t been my primary focus (Mississippi has been, by a landslide), but I’ve been paying attention to the state since writing our first piece on Peltola’s campaign. VoteHub has now projected Peltola to unseat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate. [1]

But how does an election desk determine when it’s okay to project a winner? In the case of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, what does VoteHub’s projection actually mean? What ballots are still outstanding, and what stage is the election currently at? These are all important questions, and ones we should be prepared to answer if we’re going to report a projection.

I know, I know. Subscription fatigue is real. Honestly asking for subscriptions isn’t my strong suit, aight?

But if I don’t stick up for my own stuff, who the hell is gonna?

If I don’t promote this publications 3-sec-check competitive advantage where I bet you’re gonna click those little three dots in the top right corner and see nuthin but green 100% human, who the hell else is? Try me baby.

I’m not about to sit twiddling my thumbs hoping some Substack Digest editor decides to feature my writing alongside a bunch of cookie-cutter, pretty faced Substackers who would never in a million years write the word “ain’t” in one of their essays.

Nah.

So if you are lovin’ these deep dives and fully 100% human written articles on subjects the mainstream press will sometimes never cover, then consider subscribing to my free newsletter. It’s one less way the MSM can manipulate you. And hey, one less time you’ll have to read some Substack Digest featuring Karen’s lackluster, forgettable essay.

Ok, is my jealousy coming out just a lil bit?

I digress.

Just Subscribe It’s FREE. Ok?

If for whatever reason you’re not down to subscribe…

RESTACK this biatch and keep reading.

Bye.

What VoteHub is seeing

WinCast, VoteHub’s election modeling product, factors in reported election results as well as past election data, turnout and demographic data to inform VoteHub’s calls. [2] VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini noted that its projection accounts for ranked-choice voting in Alaska as well. He said Peltola was likely to receive over 50 percent of first-choice votes, but that VoteHub projects her winning even if ranked-choice tabulation is necessary, saying the company can run those numbers as well. [3]

VoteHub’s projections and modeling also take into account where votes have yet to be tallied and which candidate may receive those votes. [2] Earlier this week, Donnini noted that an absentee ballot update largely stemming from Mat-Su, which he identified as Sullivan’s strongest remaining source of votes, shrank Peltola’s advantage by 275 votes, to 3,975. Donnini characterized those numbers as not promising for Sullivan. [4]

What Alaska still has to count

By Friday night, Nov. 13, Peltola’s lead had grown to 10,412 votes. She had 49.84% of first-choice votes in the state’s unofficial tally. [5] The Associated Press estimated that 96% of expected ballots had been counted. [6]

Alaska publishes voters’ rankings from scanned ballots in what it calls a cast vote record. That allows independent analysts to examine how those votes would transfer between candidates. The file excludes ballots counted only by hand, so its coverage is incomplete. [7]

The remaining work includes reviewing and counting absentee and questioned ballots, with the final regional count scheduled for Nov. 18. Overseas mail ballots postmarked by Election Day, Nov. 3, can arrive through Nov. 18 and still be eligible to count. [8]

Alaska has set Nov. 18 for the ranked-choice count, if one is needed. [7] State officials then have to review and verify the results. They’re aiming to certify the election on Nov. 25. [8]

Mississippi is going to have to share me

I intend on paying closer attention to Alaska than I have in the past.

VoteHub is projecting a Peltola win. [1] I’ll continue to follow along as the results are tallied and certified and keep you posted as things change.

I neglected Alaska a bit too much while covering Mississippi, but I’m happy I’ve been paying more attention than I otherwise would have. Mississippi is gonna have to learn to share.

Related Essays: